During his trial, Jesus was put in a difficult position by Pilate. The authorities that condemned him saw Jesus as a mere man, but he was so much more. Pilate wanted Jesus to speak his truth, but Pilate had already judged his truth as a lie. He wanted Jesus to admit he was the Messiah to ridicule and punish him. Although he was killed in part for his honest response, Jesus’ answer has resonated with Christians for centuries: “You say that I am a king. For this I was born, and for this I came into the world, to testify to the truth …” (John 18:33–40).
Most trans people have found themselves in terrible conundrums similar to this: awkward, cringey, frightening. We’re asked in public about our genitals or what our former names were, just to be told who we know ourselves to be isn’t who we really are. Sometimes people are curious, a bit green to these kinds of conversations, and their genuine desire to know is communicated poorly, more “impolite” than threatening. But sometimes, like Jesus with Pilate, these questions are a trial to “expose us.” Often this is just to be ridiculed by bullies, people with nothing better to do than to share their little opinions. However, the reality is these situations carry an implicit threat of violence with the potential to be life-ending.
Often when our truth is forced out of us, we are in danger because we are just being ourselves. Some cis people who may have loved or been associated with a trans person may be overwhelmed by sharing in the shame we are told to feel. At its worst, this can lead to perpetrators lashing out and killing trans people. On Nov. 20, Trans Day of Remembrance, we remember the people who are murdered because they are transgender.
In the previous year, the Human Rights Committee reported that 84% of victims of transphobic violence were people of color with 50% being Black transgender women. The majority were victims of gun violence. Like Christ, these are people not treated with respect by their government whose leaders did not normally look like them. Half of all victims were misgendered or deadnamed by the press or police. Even in their death, earthly authorities fail to recognize the truth these victims brought forth in their life. God sees each one of them and loves them close, knowing the name they chose is the name written in the Book of Life. Like Christ, they were born to come into the world and testify their truth: kings, queens and monarchs all gone too soon.
As recorded in the synoptic gospels, Jesus asked his closest friends about his identity, “Who do people say I am?” His friend Simon gives a list of prophets Jesus has been compared to. Flattering analogies, but not quite accurate. In a tender, personal moment, Jesus asks “But what about you? Who do you say I am?” Simon answers affirming the truth that may have been difficult for many people at first to accept: “You are the Messiah, the Son of the living God.”
Jesus replies in glee, “Blessed are you, Simon son of Jonah, for this was not revealed to you by flesh and blood, but by my Father in heaven.” Jesus then gives Simon a new name, Peter (changing a name is an experience many trans people can relate to!) and tells him that the church is built on him. Just as Peter could see Jesus for who he really was, so too could Jesus see that the Apostle Peter was so much more than “Simon” the fisherman (Matthew 16:13–20).
This is what transgender Christians see in our cisgender siblings in the Presbyterian Church. We delight when churches do not claim people’s genders for them by what was revealed in “flesh and blood” by genitals or chromosomes but instead seeing us all for who we are by our stories, by our experiences, and by the love trans people radiate in the world … a love that is surely from the Father in heaven. And in repenting of our sins of sustaining and tolerating racist, transphobic violence the Church can join Simon Peter in becoming so much more than what we are at present. Our transformation will be beautiful and powerful. Our church seeks to take on this call following our transgender and gender-nonconforming siblings, sisters and brothers who we remember and hold dear in life, death and the promise of new life.
Rosa Ross (she/her), M. Div., is a trans woman doing ministry at UKirk Ewing and Ewing Covenant Presbyterian Church in New Jersey. She is a member of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.)’s LGBTQIA+ Equity Advocacy Committee.
by the Advocacy Committee for LGBTQIA+ Equity | Special to Presbyterian News Service
Photo by Michele Wales via Unsplash
LOUISVILLE — During Trans Awareness Week, ACQ+E, the Advocacy Committee for LGBTQIA+ Equity, an advocacy committee for the General Assembly of the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.), recognizes our trans and gender non-binary parishioners, clergy, educators, chaplains and friends. We see you and, during these difficult times, we stand with you in accordance with the teachings of our church.
Trans Awareness Week calls us to honor the sacred journeys, resilience and divine beauty of our transgender and gender non-binary siblings. In a world that often struggles with difference, they reveal the boundless creativity of God’s vision. Their courage to live into their God-given truth reflects a holy call to authenticity and faithfulness. Each life lived with resilience and grace expands our understanding of divine inclusivity, reminding us of God’s love for all. Through the unique gifts of trans and non-binary people, we see the Gospel’s call to celebrate diversity and live together in love and compassion.
The PC(USA) has maintained a progressive welcome for people of all gender identities. The 223rd General Assembly (2018) unanimously voted to not only affirm, but to “celebrate the full dignity and humanity of people of all gender identities.”
The approved overture states, “These affirmations and this commitment are rooted and grounded in the Gospel of Jesus Christ, in the breadth of Scripture and in the Reformed tradition. … Honoring the breadth and variety of our gender identities and expressions is one of the ways we can come to an even deeper understanding of who we are created to be in relationship to God and each other.”
In affirming the full dignity and humanity of people of all gender identities, the 223rd General Assembly stated that “we share a mutual obligation to stand for the right of all people and all gender identities and gender expressions to live free from discrimination and from violence.” Therefore, the PC(USA) supports the right of people of all gender expressions to:
Receive gender-affirming medical care
Serve in the military and every type of government and public service
Have full access to public accommodations, including gender-inclusive restrooms
Have full legal protection against discrimination, particularly with regard to employment, housing, education and health care
Have Title IX protections for transgender students against violence
Have other legal protections that guarantee and safeguard the full rights of people of all gender expressions.
ACQ+E joins with the 223rd General Assembly in affirming and celebrating the gifts of LGBTQIA+ people for ministry. We are pleased that all, including LGBTQIA+ people, who are called to lead churches, preach the gospel and serve those in need can do so openly.
ACQ+E is proudly committed to upholding our church’s teachings and advocating for the rights of our trans and non-binary kin both within and outside the walls of our churches.
Learn more about “On Affirming and Celebrating the Full Dignity and Humanity of People of All Gender Identities” here. More information about “On Celebrating the Gifts of People of Diverse Sexual Orientations and Gender Identities in the Life of the Church” is here. Read an article by a Presbyterian trans woman doing ministry in New Jersey here.
October 2024 was Earth’s second-hottest October on record, according to an analysis of global data going back to 1850, NASA and NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Informationreported November 13. The month fell just 0.05 degree Celsius (0.09°F) below the record set in October 2023. Both October 2023 and October 2024 came in well above all preceding Octobers, and the past 11 Octobers have all been warmer than any others on record.
As opposed to being focused in one region or another, the record heat was unusually widespread. About 12.2% of the world’s surface experienced record heat, beating the previous October record extent set in 2015 of 8.4%.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2024, the world’s second-warmest October since record-keeping began in 1850. Record warm temperatures covered 12.2% of the world’s surface. (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)
Land areas had their warmest October on record in 2024, according to NOAA, and global ocean temperatures were the second-warmest on record. The recent record heat in the oceans in 2024 has brought on a global coral bleaching event, the fourth one in recorded history (1998, 2010, 2014-17, and now 2024).
It was the warmest October on record for North America, second-warmest for South America and Oceania, fourth-warmest for Europe, fifth-warmest for Asia, and 10th-warmest for Africa.
Figure 2. Sea surface temperatures in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes (from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean between 10°N and 20°N), 1910-2024. Sea surface temperatures were the second-warmest on record in 2024, behind only 2023. (Image credit: NOAA)
Extraordinary heat in the tropical Atlantic
The Caribbean had its warmest October on record, and the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes (from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean, between 10°N and 20°N) had its second-warmest October, behind 2023. For the three-month August through October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, sea surface temperatures during 2024 in the Main Development Region were the second-warmest on record, behind only 2023 (Fig. 2). Both 2023 and 2024 had sea surface temperatures far in excess of any previous year – much higher than can be explained by the century-long increasing trend of 1.09 degrees Celsius (1.96°F). Unusual atmospheric circulation patterns made a significant contribution to this extraordinary warmth in 2023 and 2024. There is no way to know if this shift in weather patterns will continue in the coming years, potentially ushering in a new era of unusual intense hurricane activity. There is a risk that a tipping point has been crossed that will make the abnormally warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures of 2023-2024 commonplace, but it is more likely that 2023-2024 was an anomaly that will not be seen again for many years.
For the year to date, the January-to-October global surface temperature ranked warmest in NOAA’s 175-year record. According to NOAA/NCEI’s statistical analysis, there is a greater than 99% chance that 2024 will rank as the warmest year on record, which would give the planet two consecutive warmest years on record. It appears unlikely Earth will again see a year in the 20th-century temperature range for many years to come, unless there is major volcanic cooling, a major geoengineering push, and/or a sustained, worldwide effort to reduce fossil-fuel emissions.
Second-warmest October on record for the contiguous U.S.
As detailed by Bob Henson in our post on Friday, the contiguous U.S. had its second-warmest October on record. Furthermore, the autumn of 2024 to date (the period September-October) is by far the warmest in contiguous U.S. history, running almost a full degree Fahrenheit above September-October 2015. In addition, October 2024 was tied with October 1963 and November 1917 as the second-driest month in 130 years of record-keeping for the contiguous U.S.; only October 1952 was drier.
The inflation-adjusted tally of U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2024 has been 24. These include 17 severe storm events, four hurricanes, one wildfire, and two winter storms. Drought costs thus far in the U.S. amount to $1.7-$2 billion (according to Gallagher Re and Aon), so NOAA will likely be adding another billion-dollar disaster from drought. The average number of billion-dollar disasters for a full year for the most recent five years (2019–2023) is 20.4; the record was 28, set in 2023.
Both global fossil fuels and total CO2 emissions at record levels in 2024
Heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement production will rise around 0.8% in 2024, reaching a record 37.4 billion tons of carbon dioxide, according to the 2024 Global Carbon Budget report by the Global Carbon Project, released November 12. The 0.8% annual increase is roughly on par with the 0.9% average annual increase during the 2010s.
Total carbon dioxide emissions, which include land-use change, are also expected to reach record highs, 2% above the previous record set in 2023. This large increase was driven both by growth in fossil-fuel emissions and abnormally high land-use emissions in 2024 – in part, from wildfires in South America worsened by a strong El Niño event and record high temperatures.
A La Niña watch in effect
The 2023-24 El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific ended during May, and neutral conditions remain in place, NOAA reported in its latest October 10 monthly discussion of the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. A new outlook is scheduled to be released November 14. La Niña is still projected to prevail during 2024-25, but the slower-than-expected pace of development thus far has chipped away slightly at the probabilities in recent months.
According to the official NOAA probabilistic forecast, which is based on expert judgment drawing from observations and model data, La Niña conditions are expected to occur during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2024-2025, with a 74% chance during November-January. The most likely outcome is a weak La Niña event rather than a moderate or strong one.
Arctic sea ice: 4th-lowest October extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during October 2024 was the fourth-lowest in the 46-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The Arctic had its third-warmest October on record. Antarctic sea ice extent in October was the second-lowest on record, well below all other years except for 2023. The Antarctic region had its second-warmest October on record.
Notable global heat and cold marks for October 2024
The information below is courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera. Follow him on Twitter @extremetemps:
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 47.2°C (117.0°F) at Palm Springs and Indio, U.S., October 1, and Ejido Nuevo Leon, Mexico, October 6;
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -52.9°C (-63.2°F) at Summit, Greenland, October 29;
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 47.0°C (116.6°F) at Villamontes, Bolivia, October 7; and
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -73.1°C (-99.6°F) at Dome Fuji, Antarctica, October 11.
Major weather stations in October: 14 all-time heat records, 0 all-time cold records
Among global stations with a record of at least 40 years, 14 set, not just tied, an all-time heat record in October; no stations set an all-time cold record:
Cayenne AP (French Guiana, France) max. 35.6°C, October 2; Peixe (Brazil) max. 42.5°C, October 3; Alto Parnaiba (Brazil) max. 41.9°C, October 5; Goias (Brazil) max. 44.5°C, October 6; Aquidauana (Brazil) max. 43.4°C, October 7; Villamontes (Bolivia) max. 47.0°C, October 7; Pedro Juan Caballero (Paraguay) max. 39.8°C, October 7; Oeiras (Brazil) max. 43.1°C, October 9; Providenciales Airport (Turks and Caicos, UK) max. 34.3°C, October 18; Culiacan Airport (Mexico) max. 44.0°C, October 21; Maripasoula (French Guiana, France) max. 37.6°C, October 25; Pangkalapinang (Indonesia) max. 36.3°C, October 26; Larantuka (Indonesia) max. 38.4°C, October 27; and Maumere (Indonesia) max. 37.7°C, October 28.
Twenty all-time national/territorial heat records beaten or tied as of the end of October
Cocos Islands (Australia): 32.8°C (91.0°F), February 28, February 29, April 7 (tie); Costa Rica: 41.0°C (105.8°F) at Cerro Huacalito, March 6; broken again with 41.5°C, March 23, at the same location; Comoros: 36.2°C (97.2°F) at Hahaya Airport, March 12; Congo Brazzaville: 39.6°C (103.3°F) at Impfondo, March 13; Maldives: 35.1°C (95.2°F) at Hanimadhoo, March 24; tied at the same location on April 11; Togo: 44.0°C (111.2°F) at Mango, March 31; Mali: 48.5°C (119.3°F) at Kayes, April 3; Belize: 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Barton Creek, April 10; tied on May 17 at Chaa Creek; Chad: 48.0°C (118.4°F) at Faya, April 24; tied on June 5 at the same location; Cambodia: 42.8°C (109.0°F) at Preah Viehar and Svay Leu, April 27; Laos: 43.7°C (110.7°F) at Tha Ngon, May 1; (3rd time that the previous all-time record was beaten in 2024); Ghana: 44.6°C (112.3°F) at Navrongo, May 1; Palau: 35.0°C (95.0°F) at Babelthuap Int. Airport, May 29 (tie); beaten again with (Palau) 35.6°C at Koror on June 2; and Egypt: 50.9°C (123.6°F) at Assuan, June 7; Mexico: 52.0°C (125.6°F) at Tepache, June 20 (tie); Dominican Republic: 41.4°C (106.5°F), at Boca de Mao, August 8; Colombia: 43.4°C (110.1°F), at Jerusalen, September 14; Saint Barthelemy (France): 35.8°C (96.4°F) at Gustavia, September 24; Dominica: 36.6°C (97.9°F) at Canefield; and Bolivia: 47.0°C (116.6°F) at Villamontes, October 7 (tie).
One hundred seventy-one additional monthly national/territorial heat records beaten or tied as of the end of October
In addition to the 20 all-time national/territorial records set so far in 2024 (plus five nations that tied or broke their all-time record in multiple months), 180 nations or territories have set or tied monthly all-time heat records as of the end of October 2024, for a total of 205 such records:
January (15): Mayotte, Dominica, Saba, Cocos Islands, Malta, Hong Kong, Ivory Coast, Maldives, Andorra, Portugal, Costa Rica, UK, Seychelles, Martinique, St. Barthelemy
February (18): Maldives, French Guiana, Guyana, Dominica, Curacao, St. Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, U.S. Virgin Islands, Belize, North Korea, Morocco, French Southern Territories, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Peru, Laos, Chad, Togo
March (24): Paraguay, Samoa, Zimbabwe, Dominica, Cameroon, Ghana, Guyana, French Guiana, Dominican Republic, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Saba, British Indian Ocean Territories, Solomon Islands, Suriname, Guatemala, Croatia, Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Benin, Burkina Faso
April (28): Dominica, French Southern Territories, Costa Rica, French Polynesia, French Guiana, Guyana, Mauritania, Ivory Coast, Saba, Comoros, British Indian Ocean Territories, Mauritius, China, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Cape Verde, Nepal, Zimbabwe, Cyprus, Turkey, Niger, Jordan, Israel, Vietnam, Colombia, St. Barthelemy, Laos
May (20): Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Tuvalu, Ivory Coast, Dominica, Niue, Brazil, Martinique, Maldives, Costa Rica, Mexico, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Saba, Cocos Islands, Niger, Kuwait, Iraq, St. Eustatius
June (25): French Southern Territories, Guatemala, Aruba, Curacao, Zimbabwe, Comoros, Grenada, St. Eustatius, North Korea, New Zealand, Dominica, Cocos Islands, Costa Rica, Mauritius, Martinique, Taiwan, Paraguay, Algeria, Turkey, St. Pierre and Miquelon, Kuwait, China, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Malaysia
July (16): U.S. Virgin Islands, Palau, Cocos Islands, Aruba, British Indian Ocean Territories, Dominica, Saudi Arabia, Belarus, Mauritius, Maldives, Curacao, Solomon Islands, Northern Marianas, Brunei. Mozambique, French Guiana
August (11): Palau, French Southern Territories, Australia, British Indian Ocean Territories, Svalbard, Indonesia, Zimbabwe, Eswatini, Ecuador, Comoros, Guadeloupe
September (14): Taiwan, Slovenia, Sweden, Norway, Mexico, Colombia, North Korea, Hong Kong, Cuba, Bangladesh, Nepal, Cocos Islands, Gabon, Malaysia
October (9): U.S., Mexico, Saba, Maldives, British Indian Ocean Territories, Brazil, Seychelles, Chile, French Southern Territories
Three monthly national/territorial cold records beaten or tied as of the end of October
China set an all-time cold record for the month of February. Qatar set an all-time cold record for the month of March. Myanmar set an all-time cold record for the month of September.
Hemispherical and continental temperature records in 2024
Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in January in Asia: 28.5°C (83.3°F) at Bangkok Klong Thoey, Thailand, January 14
Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in February in Asia: 29.1°C (84.1°F) at Diego Garcia (British Indian Territories), February 18
Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in March in South America: 31.6°C (88.9°F) at Mariscal Estigarribia, Paraguay, March 17
Highest temperature ever recorded in April in Africa: 48.5°C (119.3°F) at Kayes, Mali, April 3
Highest temperature ever recorded in May in North America: 51.1°C (124.0°F) at Gallinas, Mexico, May 9
Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in May in the Southern Hemisphere: 29.7°C (85.5°F) at Funafuti, Tuvalu, May 21
Highest temperature ever recorded in June in Africa: 50.9°C (123.6°F) at Assuan, Egypt, June 7
Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in June in the Southern Hemisphere: 29.3°C (84.7°F) at Funafuti, Tuvalu, June 18
Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in July in the Southern Hemisphere: 28.8°C (83.8°F) at Nukunonu, Tokelau, New Zealand territory, July 16
Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in August in the Southern Hemisphere: 29.7°C (85.5°F) at Filadelfia, Paraguay, August 3
Highest temperature ever recorded in August and in all of winter in Oceania: 41.6°C (105.8°F) at Yampi Sound, Australia, August 26
Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in October in the Southern Hemisphere: 30.9°C (87.6°F) at Cuiaba, Brazil, September 23
Highest temperature ever recorded in October in North America: 47.2°C (117.0°F) at Palm Springs and Indio, U.S., October 1; and also at Ejido Nuevo Leon, Mexico, October 6
This article was originally published by Yale Climate Connections by by Dr. Jeff Masters, Yale Climate Connections.
After a spectacular burst of rapid intensification, Hurricane Helene made landfalljust east of the mouth of the Aucilla River, about 10 miles west-southwest of Perry, Florida, at about 11:10 p.m. EDT Thursday. Top sustained winds were estimated at 140 mph, making Helene a Category 4 hurricane at landfall. We’ll have much more on Helene’s many impacts—some still unfolding on Friday—in our next Eye in the Storm post.
Helene’s landfall gives the U.S. a record eight Cat 4 or Cat 5 Atlantic hurricane landfallsin the past eight years (2017-2024), seven of them being continental U.S. landfalls. That’s as many Cat 4 and 5 landfalls as occurred in the prior 57 years. The only comparable beating the U.S. has taken from Category 4 and 5 landfalling hurricanes occurred in the six years from 1945 to 1950, when five Category 4 hurricanes hit South Florida.
With the U.S. taking such a beating from extreme hurricanes in recent years, it’s worth reviewing how climate change is contributing to making hurricanes worse.
Landfalling U.S. Cat 4s and 5s
The eight Cat 4 and 5 landfalls since 2017: Harvey (2017 in Texas), Irma (2017 in Florida), Maria (2017 in Puerto Rico), Michael (2018 in Florida), Laura (2020 in Louisiana), Ida (2021 in Louisiana), Ian (2022 in Florida), Helene (2024 in Florida).
The eight Cat 4 and 5 landfalls in the prior 57 years: Charley, 2004; Andrew, 1992; Hugo, 1989; Celia, 1970; Camille, 1969; Betsy, 1965; Carla, 1961; Donna, 1960.
Hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy out of the ocean and convert it to the kinetic energy of their winds. A hotter ocean will allow hurricanes to grow more powerful, assuming that the other factors that power hurricanes, including low wind shear and a moist atmosphere, are present.
As far back as 1987, MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel theorized that the wind speeds in hurricanes can be expected to increase about 5% for every increase of one degree Celsius (1.8°F) in tropical ocean temperature, assuming that the average wind speed near the surface of the tropical oceans does not change. Computer modeling has found a slightly smaller magnitude (4%) for the increase.
A 4-5% increase in hurricane winds may not seem like a big deal, but damage from a hurricane increases exponentially with an increase in winds. For example, according to NOAA, a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph (161 kph) winds will do 10 times the damage of a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph (121 kph) winds. This includes damage not only from winds but also from storm surge, inland flooding, and tornadoes. Bottom line: A 4-5% increase in winds yields about a 40-50% increase in hurricane damage (Figure 1).
According to NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch, sea surface temperatures along Helene’s path through the western Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico were about 1-2 degrees Celsius (1.8-3.6°F) above the long-term average. Using the theoretical results above, this increase in sea surface temperatures equated to a 50-100% increase in Helene’s destructive power.
Figure 1. Damage multiplier for hurricane winds compared to a minimal Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. The difference in damage potential between each Saffir-Simpson category is roughly a factor of four. (Image credit: NOAA)
Not all of this year’s unusual warmth in the Gulf of Mexico can be confidently attributed to human-caused global warming. If we restrict ourselves to looking at just the long-term trend in August sea surface temperatures in the Gulf, these have warmed about 0.9 degree Celsius (1.62°F) per century, and 1.0 degree Celsius since 1910, according to NOAA (Fig. 2), which is close to about a 1.3-degree Celsius increase since preindustrial times (using the year 1880 as a reference). That is similar to the long-term trend for the global oceans, which have warmed about 1 degree Celsius since preindustrial times in the late 1800s.
Figure 2. Departure of August sea surface temperature from average over the Gulf of Mexico, 1910-2024. (Image credit: NOAA)
It thus appears reasonable to theorize that increased sea surface temperatures of about 1 degree Celsius since 1910 in the Gulf of Mexico from human-caused global warming led to about a 40-50% increase in Helene’s destructive power, all else being equal, by increasing the hurricane’s winds by at least 4-5%. This could well be an underestimate of the influence of human-caused climate change on the record-warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf, since the unusual atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for the hot and low-wind conditions experienced there over the past two years, which contributed to the record sea surface temperatures, could have had a climate change connection.
Global warming increases hurricane rainfall
One of the more confident predictions we can make for hurricanes in the future is that they will dump more rain. Global warming increases the rate at which ocean water evaporates into the air, and increases the amount of water vapor the atmosphere contains when fully saturated. This result is about 7% more water vapor in saturated air for every 1°C of ocean warming. This increase in atmospheric water vapor can cause a much larger increase in hurricane rainfall than one might surmise, since water vapor retains the heat energy that was required to evaporate the water, and when the water vapor condenses into rain, this latent heat is released. The extra heat helps power the hurricane, making it larger and more intense, allowing it to pull in water vapor from an even larger area and thus dump more rain.
Modeling studies on average project an increase on the order of 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of hurricanes for a 2-degree-Celsius global warming scenario. Hurricane Harvey of August 2017 brought the greatest rainfall event ever recorded in the U.S. by a tropical cyclone — peaking with an astonishing 60.58 inches in Nederland, Texas. The resulting flood disaster was the second-costliest weather-related disaster in U.S. and world history — $160 billion, according to NOAA. At least four papers have been published that found that human-caused global warming significantly increased the odds of heavy rains such as those Hurricane Harvey brought to Texas.
Attribution studies on recent dangerous hurricanes show that rainfall from these events were all amplified by human-caused climate change: Katrina in 2005 by 4%, Irma in 2017 by 6%, Maria in 2017 by 9% (Patricola and Wehner, 2018), Florence in 2018 by 5% (Reed et al., 2020), Dorian in 2019 by 5-18% (Reed et al., 2021), Ian in 2022 by 18% (Reed et al., 2023), Harvey in 2017 by 7-38% (e.g. van Oldenborgh et al., 2017), and Helene in 2024 by 10% (WWA, 2024).
Climate change causes more rapidly intensifying hurricanes
As discussed in detail in our 2020 post, rapidly intensifying hurricanes like Helene, Ida, Michael, Laura, and Harvey that strengthen just before landfall are among the most dangerous storms as they can catch forecasters and populations off guard, risking inadequate evacuation efforts and large casualties. Unfortunately, not only is human-caused climate change making the strongest hurricanes stronger, but it is also making dangerous rapidly intensifying hurricanes like Helene more common.
According to research published in 2019 in Nature Communications, “Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates,” Atlantic hurricanes showed “highly unusual” upward trends in rapid intensification during the period 1982–2009, trends that can be explained only by including human-caused climate change as a contributing cause. The largest change occurred in the strongest 5% of storms: For those, 24-hour intensification rates increased by about 3-4 mph per decade between 1982 and 2009.
Helene is one of just 10 historical storms since 1950 that have rapidly intensified by at least 40 mph in the 24 hours before landfall (using data from the regular six-hourly fix just before landfall, data from the actual landfall point, or in the case of Hurricane King of 1950, the point one hour after landfall). It is sobering to see that five of those storms, below in boldface, occurred in the past seven years.
Figure 3. Human-caused global warming has helped sea level at St. Petersburg, Florida, rise at a rate of about 0.3 meters (1.0 feet) per century, making it much easier to set new all-time high-water records. (Image credit: NOAA)
Of the six tide gauges with long-term periods of record along the west coast of Florida, Helene set an all-time high water record at three of them (Cedar Key, Clearwater Beach, and St. Petersburg) – in all three cases just before or just after midnight Thursday night – and came in second or third place behind Hurricane Ian of 2022 and Hurricane Irma of 2017 at the other two (Ft. Myers and Naples). Sea level rise made these records easier to set. Sea level rise since 1947 at the St. Petersburg, Fla., tide gauge has been about 3.09 mm per year, or about 0.3 meters (1.0 feet) if extrapolated to a 100-year period (Figure 1). A substantial portion of this sea level rise is the result of human-caused global warming; the global sea level rise since 1900 is estimated to be about 7.5 inches (0.19 meters). Most of this rise has occurred because of melting of glaciers and because water expands when heated. Over the past 10 years, sea level rise has accelerated along the Florida coast, and the rate has been about 7 mm per year (2.3 feet per century) at St. Petersburg. Changes in ocean circulation and wind patterns, with climate change a potential contributing factor, are thought to be the reason for the acceleration.
Six of St. Petersburg’s top-10 water levels since 1947 (highlighted in bold) have occurred since 2012. This is the kind of behavior one would expect to see in an era of climate change, since sea level rise makes it easier to set new high-water records. Here are the top ten water levels at St. Petersburg since 1947, as measured above mean higher high water, or MHHW:
6.31 feet, September 27, 2024, Hurricane Helene
4 feet, August 31, 1985, Hurricane Elena
3.8 feet, August 30, 2023, Hurricane Idalia
3.58 feet, October 8, 1996, Tropical Storm Josephine
3.52 feet, June 18, 1982, Subtropical Storm One
3.37 feet, November 12, 2020, Tropical Storm Eta
3.16 feet, December 17, 2023, Winter storm
2.74 feet, September 6, 2004, Hurricane Frances
2.91 feet, March 13, 1993, Storm of the Century
2.74 feet, June 25, 2012, Tropical Storm Debby
Here are the top seven water levels at Cedar Key since 1914 (above mean higher high water, or MHHW), again with records set since 2012 in bold:
1) 9.3 feet, September 27, 2024, Hurricane Helene 2) 6.84 feet, August 30, 2023, Hurricane Idalia 3) 5.98 feet, September 2, 2016, Hurricane Hermine 4) 5.41 feet, August 31, 1985, Hurricane Elena 5) 5.15 feet, October 8, 1996, Tropical Storm Josephine 6) 5.13 feet, March 13, 1993, Storm of the Century 7) 4.66 feet, August 5, 2024, Hurricane Debby
Here are the top six water levels at the Clearwater Beach tide gauge, on the Gulf of Mexico side of St. Petersburg, where records extend back to 1973:
1) 6.67 feet, September 26, 2024, Hurricane Helene 2) 4.02 feet, March 13, 1993, Storm of the Century 3) 3.58 feet, August 30, 2023, Hurricane Idalia 4) 3.32 feet, January 3, 1999, Winter storm 5) 3.17 feet, August 31, 1985, Hurricane Elena 6) 2.91 feet, October 8, 1996, Tropical Storm Josephine
Here are the top seven water levels at Naples since 1965 (above mean higher high water, or MHHW):
1) 6.18 feet, September 28, 2022, Hurricane Ian (gage failed before highest level was recorded) 2) 4.02 feet, September 10, 2017, Hurricane Irma 3) 4.01 feet, September 26, 2024, Hurricane Helene 4) 3.11 feet, August 4, 2024, Hurricane Debby (data from the new North Naples Bay station) 5) 3.11 feet, December 22, 1972, Winter storm 6) 3.08 feet, January 17, 2016, Winter storm 7) 3.02 feet, September 28, 2023, Hurricane Idalia
Helene brought the second-highest water level on record to Fort Myers, Florida, where accurate records go back to 1965. Here are their top seven water levels (above mean higher high water, or MHHW):
1) 7.26 feet, September 28, 2022, Hurricane Ian 2) 5.12 feet, September 27, 2024, Hurricane Helene 3) 3.41 feet, November 23, 1988, Tropical Storm Keith 4) 3.31 feet, September 14, 2001, Hurricane Gabrielle 5) 3.30 feet, June 18, 1982, Unnamed subtropical storm 6) 3.27 feet, August 4, 2024, Hurricane Debby 7) 3.2 feet, August 30, 2023, Hurricane Idalia
